Dolphins vs. Jets Monday Night Pick

It's Monday Night. You maybe up or down for the weekend, but one thing is for sure, you are going to have some action on tonights game.

Who to pick? In my Sunday picks columns I went with Miami, and the spread has only went my Miami's way. Everyone is in love with the Jets and their pretty boy rookie quarterback, but what do we really know about them?

1) They beat Houston in week 1, and we know Houston isn't that good.
2) They beat a winless Tennessess in week 3.
3) They lost to the Saints, by two scores.
4) They beat a Patriots team that just lost to the Broncos; this is their only quality win.

What do we know about the Dolphins?

1) Only win came from beating a terrible Buffalo team, but in their defense, the Dolphins ran them.
2) The "Should have" beat a now 5-0 Colts team but couldn't close the deal.
3) Their offense stunk in week 1 vs. the Falcons.
4) They lost to a San Diego team, which they were pushing around after Pennington got hurt.

My money is still on the Dolphins. I like them at home, against a rookie quarterback on the road on Monday night and you can take the 3 points or hit the money line.

Week 5 NFL Betting Picks

RAMS OVER Vikings (-10) - Favre and company are do for a let down.

Would I bet it? Tempting

CHIEFS (+8) over Cowboys - The Cowboys shouldn't be giving anyone 8 on the road.

Would I get it? Sure.

EAGLES(-15) over Bucs - The Bucs are pretty bad and the Eagles at home should roll, however the garbage time score would scary me into taking the favorite here.

Would I bet it? No.


RAVENS over Bengals (+8.5) - The Bengals will get destroyed.

Would I bet it? Yes.

Raiders over GIANTS (-15) - I don't trust the Giants with this big of a number with a gimpy Eli.

Would I bet it? No.

LIONS over Steelers (-10.5) - No way I trust the Steelers.

Would I bet it? No.


BILLS(-6) over Browns - The Browns are imploding.

Would I bet it? Probably Not.

NINERS (-2.5) over Falcons - Should be a good game. Evenly matched teams.

Would I bet it? No.


SEAHAWKS (pk) over Jags - A toss up of 2 crappy teams.

Would I bet it? Not with a 10 foot pole.

BRONCOS (+3.5) over Patriots - From week 1 I have betting the Broncos, not going to stop as I say they are going to cover 12 games this year.

Would I bet it? Hell yea.

Texans (+5.5) over CARDS - The Texans are due.

Would I bet it? No.


TITANS over Colts (-3.5) - This is a sucker trap. Everyone will unload on Manning and get burned.

Would I bet it? Yes, but it will be tough to watch.

DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Jets - Sanchez won't be able to keep his composure against a stingy Dolphins Defense.

Would I bet it? Yes. I think this will be an easy one to watch.

NFL Week 4 Betting Matchups

Lions (+10) over BEARS - Should the Bears be giving anyone 10?

Would I bet it? Yes.

BROWNS (+6) over Bengals - I think Mangini pulls it together this week.

Would I bet it? No.

Raiders (+9) over TEXANS - I just can't trust the Texans giving 9.

Would I bet it? No.

COLTS (-10.5) over Seahawks - Could be a sucker trap, but I think Peyton has a couple more blowouts in them before they let everydown in massive sucker trap. Everyone will tease the Colts down this week.

Would I bet it? No.

Titans (-3) over JAGUARS - The Jags stink. They probably pull it together this week at home, but why risk it.

Would I bet it? No.

CHIEFS (+9) over Giants - The Giants are good for a let down against a bad team.

Would I bet it? No.

PATRIOTS (-1.5) over Ravens - Betting against the Patriots isn't usually a winning proposition.

Would I bet it? No.

Bucs (+7.5) over REDSKINS - Really? The Redskins giving someone 7.5? Come on!

Would I bet it? Sure.

DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Bills- The Fins are due.

Would I bet it? No.

SAINTS (-7) over Jets - Tough game to call. The Jets probably won't be able to keep up.

Would I bet it? No.

BRONCOS (+3) over Cowboys - Have i mentioned how much I love betting the Broncos this year?

Would I bet it? Yes.

NINERS (-9.5) over Rams - Probably too many points to give.

Would I bet it? No.

Chargers (+6.5) over STEELERS - Take the points.

Would I bet it? Sure.

Packers (+3.5) over VIKINGS - Favre throws 2 pics for sure.

Would I bet it? Sure.

NFL Week 3 Betting Matchups

Cleveland (+13.5) at Baltimore - Baltimore is certainly the class of the AFC coming to week 3. Still too early to figure out if this spread is too high. I would stay away.

Would I bet it? No
If I had to bet it? Cleveland


NY Giants (-6.5) at Tampa - Giants are due for a let down game. This is probably it. I'll take the bucs.

Would I bet it? Sure
If I had to bet it? Tampa


Green Bay (-6.5) at St. Louis - This spread looks a little too high for my tasting. Take the home dog.

Would I bet it? Sure
If I had to bet it? St. Louis

KC (+7.5) at Philly - A McNabbless Philly with a gimpy Westbrook shouldn't be giving anyone a touchdown.

Would I bet it? Sure
If I had to bet it? KC


Atlanta (+4.5) at New England - Matt Ryan, this is reality calling, we want you back. I like Atlanta in this spot, as I don't think Brady is clicking with an unhealthy receiving corps.

Would I bet it? Sure
If I had to bet it? Atlanta

San Fran (+6.5) at Minnesota - Good game, and is fairly priced at 6.5. I would stay away.

Would I bet it? No
If I had to bet it? San Fran.

Jax (+3.5) at Houston - The battle of the under-achievers. Stay away.

Would I bet it? No
If I had to bet it? Houston

Wash (-6.5) at Detroit. I think Detroit gets a win at home.

Would I bet it? Sure
If I had to bet it? Detroit


Tenn (+2) at Jets - The Jets will come back to earth this week against a tough Defense.

Would I bet it? Sure
If I had to bet it? Titans

New Orleans (-4.5) at Buffalo - I am sick of Drew Brees, I think this game is a sucker trap with that low number. Take the Bills at home.

Would I bet it? Hell Yea
If I had to bet it? Buffalo

Chicago (-2) at Seattle - Seattle does stink but I wouldn't trust Chicago with my money. Stay away.

Would I bet it? No
If I had to bet it? Seattle

Pitt (-3.5) at Cinci - I'm sorry, Cinci is terrible. I don't buy last week's win.

Would I bet it? No
If I had to bet it? Pitt.

Denver (+2.5) at Oakland - I'll keep riding that Denver bandwagon.

Would I bet it? Sure
If I had to bet it? Denver

Miami (+6.5) at San Diego - Tough line. I think Miami rebounds from a tough Monday loss.

Would I bet it? No
If I had to bet it? Miami


Indy (+2) at Arizona - Will the real Arizona please stand up?

Would I bet it? Sure
If I had to bet it? Indy

Carolina (+9) at Dallas - Take the points. Dallas doesn't look like they should be giving anyone 9 points, not even the hapless Panthers.

Would I bet it? Sure
If I had to bet it? Carolina

NFL Week 2 Betting Matchups

Texans (+7) at Titans - Seems like too much respect for the Titans. They played Pittsburgh close, but this game should be a 3 point spread.

Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Texans.

Patriots (-5) at Jets - Everyone will unload on the Pats and the spread moved up to 5. Never chase a spread. This isn't a sucker game, because the PATS didn't look that good in week 1 and the Jets did.

Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Jets.

Bengals (+9) at Packers - The Packers offense didn't look that good against the Bears. Not sure they should be giving anyone 9. Cinci is a joke of a team and franchise, amazing how their head coach gets such a pass. Hard Knocks Jinx continues.

Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Packers.


Vikings (+10) at Lions - This spread could be 30 and people still wouldn't bet the Lions. This game has major sucker potential. You have to take the Lions in this spot, for this one reason alone. When I think about having my money against Adrian Peterson I get sick to my stomach.

Would I bet it? Yes.
If I had to bet? Lions


Panthers (+6) at Falcons - A nice Falcon performance combined with a dismal Panther week 1 performance and everyone will bet the Falcons. Sucker potential for sure.

Would I bet it? Yes.
If I had to bet? Panthers.

Rams (+9.5) at Redskins - The skins didn't convince me they should be giving anyone 10. This game has my interested, but I don't think it has enough sucker potential. Stay away.

Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Rams.

Cards (+3.5) at Jags - Just flip a coin, who knows ...

Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Cards.



Raiders(+3) at Chiefs - This will probably be the lowest Raider spread all year, but note they are 1-0 ATS. I bet the Raiders cover 9 or 10 games this year, but only muster 4 wins. Another coin toss. I would lean to the Chiefs at home.

Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Chiefs.

Seahawks (+1) at 49ers - The niners will get some bandwagon bettors for sure. Could be a sucker trap.


Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? 49ers.


Bucs (+5) at Bills - Wow. The Bills getting some Vegas-cred for playing the Pats tight.

Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Bucs.


Browns (+3) at Broncos - The Broncos will cover 10 games this year, you have heard it here first. I loved them last week.


Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Broncos.


Steelers (-3) at Bears - Can Jay Culter really throw another Stinker? I think so.


Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Steelers.


Ravens (+3.5) at Chargers - Fairly priced. Tough game to pick but San Diego has no home field advanatage.

Would I bet it? No.
If I had to bet? Ravens.


Giants (+3) aWould I bet it? No. (but seeing it is a Sunday Night game, you need a little action on it)
If I had to bet? Cowboys.t Cowboys - This game will be heavily bet. Opening game at new stadium will have the Boys up. This spread probably ticks up to 3.5.



Colts (-3) at Dolphins - No way this spread stays at 3. The Dolphins looked pretty bad in week 1, and everyone loves having their money on Manning. A good sucker bet in the making. Home dog on Monday night.


Would I bet it? Yes.
If I had to bet? Dolphins.

NFL Week 1 Matchups

Remember, in my column on 10 Simple Rules I advise everyone to only pick a few games a week. Unless you are in an office pool, where you have to pick every game on the board, keep things simple and pick 3-4 winners a week. And if you want to have action on the nationally televised Sunday and Monday Night games, pick them in advance.


Let's take a look at week 1:

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-5)
I personally think the Steelers are over-rated, but the Titans Defense will not be the same without Albert, and can we really count on Kerry Collins to put in a repeat performance of last year? Even though Kobe ( i mean Ben), looks to be legally ok after a romp with the hotel staff, was it enough to distract the champs?


My advice: I would probably layoff at 5, but my guess is that the number will tick up to 6, in which case I would give the Titans a hard look.



Would I bet it? No.
If i had to bet it? Tennessee


Miami at Atlanta (-4)
Both teams are coming off huge rebounds in 2008. The media is absolutely in love with Matt Ryan and Chad Pennington. The true line should probably be 3, so at anything above that and I like Miami. This game doesn't have me pounding the table, and there are better games on the board, so I would lay off.


Would I bet it? No.
If i had to bet it? Miami


KC at Baltimore (-12.5)
9 points you say? Matt Cassell's knee is obviously the thing to watch before betting on this game. Sophomore jinx for Joe Flacco anyone? This game feels 'suckerish' to me, so I would lean on betting KC unless Cassell can't go.


Would I bet it? Yes.
If i had to bet it? KC.



Philly at Carolina (2.5)
Everyone loves Philly this year. Remember, Vick can't go until week 6, so forget about all this Wildcat hype you have been hearing. I don't like seeing good rushing teams getting dissed at home, so I would probably take Carolina here but would layoff if the line moves against them.


Would I bet it? Sure.
If i had to bet it? Carolina.



Denver at Cinci (-5)
Everyone has written Denver off this year, and Cinci is always a wild card because of Palmer's health. I wouldn't touch this game unless the spread gets crazy.

Update: Sorry, I just don't buy that Cinci should be giving anyone 5 in week 1. I am taking Denver.


Would I bet it? Yes.
If i had to bet it? Denver.



Minnesota at Cleveland (+4)
Adrian Peterson gets respect from the odds makers. I like Cleveland here. Mangini is going to have something special ready for the quarterback who ruined his tenure in New York. Any chance I can take a home dog and bet against Brett Favre at the same time makes me a happy gambler.


Would I bet it? Yes.
If i had to bet it? Cleveland.


NY Jets at Houston (-4.5)
Mark Sanchez meet Mario Williams. I would probably consider laying off this game, but if the spread moves down a little, I would have to take Houston at home against a new regime, with a rookie quarterback, on the road.


Would I bet it? No.
If i had to bet it? Houston


Jax at Indy (-6.5)
I wouldn't touch this game personally. Manning looks good after participating in a full camp this year. Indy's running game is still suspect in my view. On the JAX side, I don't think their offense is all that good. This spread has inched up some, look for the sharp money to come in if this ticks to 7.5.


Would I bet it? No.
If i had to bet it? Indy.



Detroit at New Orleans (-13.5)
A week 1 13.5 point dog? Really? Do we know that much about these teams in 2009? I say no.
But I still wouldn't touch it.



Would I bet it? No.
If i had to bet it? New Orleans


Dallas at Tampa (+5.5)
I would take Tampa and the points, but home dogs are like fresh baked cookies for me. I can't keep my hands off them. I would take a flyer on the Bucs +5. Why not. Too many Cowboys fans out there with too much cash chasing them. This is the year that the Jerry Jones experiment blows up in Wade Phillips' face. I predict the Cowboys won't make the playoffs this year, and will struggle to go .500. On the other hand, if Tampa just fired their Offensive coordinator, things can't be too good in Tampa. If you can stomach it, take Tampa.


Would I bet it? Yes.
If i had to bet it? Tampa.



San Fran at Arizona (-6)
Arizona has big 2008 shoes to fill this year, and San Fran is a fashionable sleeper pick this year. I think this game is fairly priced at 6.5 so I would layoff, but if it goes over 7 then I would take a good look at San Fran.

Would I bet it? No.

If i had to bet it? San Fran.

Wash. at NY Giants (-6.5)
Every year I come up with a few teams that I think won't be that good. This year, It think the NY Giants will be in that camp. Eli has no weapons, and Jacobs is one injury away from sinking this team. Now, Jason Campbell doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies, so I wouldn't unload or anything, but if the line hits 7 then I would take the Skins.

Would I bet it? No.
If i had to bet it? Wash.


St. Louis at Seattle (-7.5)
Seattle giving 7.5 ... Seattle giving 7.5 ... I think St. Louis just found a new fan for 3 hours on Sunday. Can we really trust Seattle to cover this big of a number?

Would I bet it? No.
If i had to bet it? Seattle.


Chicago at Green Bay (-4)
This game should be a good matchup. Fairly priced at 4, but just ticked to 3.5, I endorse either team if you want to make this one of your 3-4 games to wager on. I don't think there is a sucker factor on this game. It's plain vanilla.

Would I bet it? No.
If i had to bet it? Green Bay.




Buffalo at New England (-10.5)
Everyone is so busy watching Tom Brady's knee we overlook the fact that when Albert Haynesworth is driving you into the turf, you may hurt a few key body parts. If Buffalo's offense didn't seem so dreadful, I would be tempted to bet against the return of the NFL golden boy. But, I am not convinced that Buffalo isn't terrible, so can't bet this game. Unless I get a pre-season 'proof-of-a-good-shoulder' from Brady, I will probably lay off this game too.

Would I bet it? No.
If i had to bet it? Patriots



San Diego at Oakland (+9.5)
Oakland should be a minor league club at this point. I bet there are UFL teams with more of a chance to win this year. This number will climb as we get more dysfunctional news out of Oakland, so i wouldn't jump on the sucker bandwagon just yet. This is clear sucker-bet, as everyone and their brother will be betting against Oakland all year, the number has climbed to 9 over the past few weeks. You can probably get 10.5 by kickoff. My rule of thumb is this, when you are absolutely sick to your stomach when thinking about having your money on a team as bad as Oakland, you probably have made the right bet. And everyone and their brother is predicting a huge year for San Diego.


Would I bet it? Yes.
If i had to bet it? Oakland.




Top Sucker Bets This Week:


San Diego -9.5 All the front runners love San Diego, and just when you think Oakland can't embarrass themselves more, they seem to top themselves.



Dallas -5 Dysfunction in Tampa Bay meets a popular Dallas team. Most people will unload on Dallas, don't get sucked in.

Sucker Analysis: NFL Week 1

Even though it is still pre-season, let's take a quick look at the week 1 board for sucker games. Keep in mind, weeks 1-4 don't have much sucker potential, so I wouldn't unload or anything, but you wouldn't want to get eliminated from your knock-out/survivor pool in Week 1.

At Baltimore -8.5 Kansas City

Baltimore giving -8.5 to the Chiefs. This has some sucker potential. 8.5 seems like a big number for a week 1 game. Do we really know the 2009 Chiefs will stink like 2008? Do we know that the Ravens will be as good as 2008? Flacco sophomore jinx? Let's keep monitoring this line, but I have my eye on it.

Dallas -3 At Tampa Bay

Dallas giving 3 on the road to Tampa Bay? This seems suspect to me. Dallas wasn't that good of a team last year, and I am not sure what has really changed. Until Dallas proves it can be successful without the Parcells staff, it shouldn't be giving points on the road.

At Seattle -7 St. Louis

Does Seattle deserve to give anyone 7 points on week 1? I don't think so. Keep your eye on this one as the season gets closer.


Monday Night Football Betting Lines

At New England -10 Buffalo

Everyone will be itching to coronet Brady's Pats back into the NFL throne. This line will probably move some as the season inches closer. I think if it touches 12-13 points then you will be rooting for TO on the first MNF game. One thing to remember, it took Peyton Manning a NFL few weeks to look normal again. Brady is the man, but don't ask him to be pulling off big covers on week 1.

San Diego -6.5 At Oakland

Another Monday Night Football sucker potential. While Oakland is certainly a terrible franchise, its a big ask to call on a road favorite to cover a big number in week 1. If this hits 7+ then silver and black may turn to gold!